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It appears the event began at an Ohio generating station, at a time when the eastern power systems were close to capacity. The resulting reverse flow caused the collapse of the Toledo-Cleveland-Detroit subsystem, eventually destabilizing the entire Eastern Interconnection. Some systems were spared, thanks to effective electronic or human intervention, but a total of 40 million consumers were affected and, in much of Ontario, it took over a week to restore full service.
It's human nature to find someone or something to blame, and accusatory fingers pointed at underinvestment in transmission facilities, experiments in deregulation, ineffective management by the Independent Electricity Market Operator, inadequate inter-grid communications, lack of |
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planning, inadequate generation, over-reliance on nuclear generation, substandard recovery times for some Ontario Power Generation thermal plants, over-dependence on central supply, inadequate roll-out of distributed generation, and reliance on monolithic central utilities for decision-making.
One day we will have a clearer perspective on the root causes of the blackout, and the electricity sector will be better for it. But already some courses of action appear to be inevitable. One is increased pressure to apply mandatory reliability standards across North America. The standards exist; they were developed by NERC in association with its 10 regional councils. At the same time, processes were developed for ensuring compliance. Transmission Facility Operators and Independent System Operators are now “strongly encouraged” to abide by these reliability standards. The majority of TFOs are in voluntary compliance, but NERC is lobbying to make them mandatory. The events of August 14 have brought this issue to the top of the public policy agenda and legislation is now before the US Congress. Enforcement will bring part of the solution - massive investment in generation and transmission. The sum of $50 billion has been suggested as the cost of bringing North American electricity systems up to standard.
Governments were forced into a leadership role during the crisis and, whether they want it or not, will contribute to the planning and actions required to ensure the scenario is not repeated.
Critical bottlenecks in the North American transmission grid contributed to the sudden collapse of the system. Transmission deficiencies in Southern Connecticut, the Midwest and Texas will need to be addressed in the short term.
As for Ontario, expansion of transmission is an urgent necessity. Generating capacity is capable of expansion, through restarting the two remaining nuclear units at Bruce, squeezing more power from the Niagara River, and by investment in new distributed generation and renewables. Imported power is another solution; interconnections and supply contracts with Manitoba and Quebec could stimulate massive investments in hydropower in Northern Manitoba.
For further information, please contact:
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George Davies, President Acres Management Consulting, Toronto, ON 416-542-5812 gdavies@acres.com
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